CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 13/02 - 06Z MON 14/02 2005
ISSUED: 12/02 19:12Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the British Isles ... central Europe and the NW and central Mediterranean.

SYNOPSIS

Vigorous vort max expected between Iceland and the British Isles at the W periphery of upper low over N-central Europe by Sunday 00Z will rapidly dig southwards across the British Isles and France ... reaching the NW Mediterranean towards the end of the forecast period ... resulting in massive upper low covering most of Europe ... with several perturbations present at its periphery. With the digging vort max ... deep polar air will continue to spread southwards ... with main low-level cold front progged to be locaterd over the N Mediterranean on Monday 00Z ... with cyclogenesis simulated in the lee of the Alps over N Italy along the front on Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

...SEE TEXT area...
Main focus for potentially severe convective development will likely be the strong vort max overspreading France and the NW Mediterranean during Sunday and early Monday morning.

Though model guidance does not suggest deep CAPE over France ... at least rather shallow convection may be possible which may organize into narrow ... partly bowing lines ... capable to produce severe straight-line winds given very quite impressive shear profiles and strong large-scale forcing for ascent. TSTMS may spread into the western/central Mediterranean late in the period. However ... models are reluctant to come up with clear positive signals in the CAPE fields ... and the evoultion of convection as well as their sustenance into the night seem to be rather uncertain. If convection happens to be realized though ... organized severe TSTMS are may occur. A SLGT is not warranted ATTM but an upgrade may be necessary on Sunday.

...central Europe...
It looks that showers and a few TSTMS will be possible over most of central Europe in the deep polar air throughout the period ... though especially W-central Europe should be favored fiven moisture influx from the North Sea. Large-scale SFC flow may locally exceed severe levels ... and may be slightly augmented by the convection. Allover severe TSTM threat seems to be rather low however.

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